PUNE: Most parts of north India, particularly Delhi-NCR, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, are likely to have a scorching summer ahead, says the India Meteorological Department.
In its outlook for the months of March to May, IMD said the mean maximum temperatures in Delhi and Haryana could be 0.71 degree Celsius higher than normal, the highest predicted deviation from normal in the country after Chhattisgarh, where temperatures are likely to be 0.86 degree C above normal. West UP could be almost as hot with 0.61 degree C higher-than-normal maximum temperatures during the season.
The summer in most of Maharashtra, and parts of south peninsular India like Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka may see cooler day temperatures.
Warmer nights are also in store for many regions, including Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, east Rajasthan, Madhya Maharashtra and other places.
El Nino and La Nina conditions over the Pacific Ocean control temperatures in India. During a La Nina year, the severity of heat waves is generally less in comparison to an El Nino year. However, higher temperatures in many parts of the country have been forecast despite moderate La Nina conditions currently observed over the Pacific. These conditions are likely to sustain during the upcoming season, IMD said.
“Temperatures are higher during El Nino years when more heatwaves are expected than a La Nina year, when the case is the opposite. The actual picture will be clearer as the season advances,” IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
Last year, summer was not that severe due to frequent thunderstorms and fewer heatwaves, Mohapatra added.
The weather bureau’s seasonal outlook for temperatures from this March to May said above normal maximum temperatures were likely over many subdivisions.
These include subdivisions in the north, northwest and northeast India, a few in eastern (Chhattisgarh and Odisha) and western (Gujarat region and Saurashtra and Kutch) parts of central India, and coastal subdivisions of Konkan and Goa and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
On the other hand, most subdivisions in south peninsular India and adjoining central India are likely to experience below normal maximum temperatures, the outlook said.
The probability forecast indicated that above normal minimum temperatures were likely over most of the subdivisions of north India along the foothills of the Himalayas, northeast India, western part of central India and southern parts of peninsular India.
Most subdivisions in the east and adjoining central India and a few subdivisions in the extreme northern part of the country are likely to experience below normal minimum temperatures, the outlook said.
O P Sreejith, a scientist in the Climate Monitoring and Prediction group at IMD, Pune, told TOI that the global warming signature has been apparent in the last few years.
“It is one of the reasons why some regions are likely to have higher temperatures during summer. Some regions of Maharashtra and peninsular India are likely to see cooler day temperatures as per model forecasts probably because of clouding and rain,” he added.