In over a decade since the grand old party vacated the throne of power at the Centre, the Union Territory of Puducherry has clung to its reputation as a Congress bastion. In the three Assembly elections since 2006, the only time it defaulted to a worst case scenario alternative was to choose an offshoot of the Congress, the regional All India NR Congress.

However, that reputation as one of the last remaining Congress bastions in the country comes under severe test as the Union Territory braces for the April 6 Assembly elections to the 30-member House.

This year, the Congress-DMK-Left-VCK parties under the Secular Democratic Progressive Alliance (SDPA) have a mountain to climb to overcome a resurgent AINRC spearheaded by its founder and former Chief Minister N. Rangasamy, who leads the NDA charge, a confident BJP that controls the nomination of three nominated legislators to the Assembly and is contesting nine seats, and the AIADMK with its sway over a couple of strongholds in Puducherry and Karaikal.

Series of exits

The Congress, which has been embattled by a series of exits of influential leaders that eventually culminated in the fall of its government in a trust vote on February 22, barely days before elections were notified, bears no resemblance to the party that rode to power in alliance with the DMK in 2016.

Even before one crisis subsided, another would brew. Party workers fumed when the principal ally DMK walked away from the negotiating table with an unprecedented 13 seats in its kitty against 15 for the Congress and one each for the VCK and the CPI. The fire was lit on the tinderbox when the DMK fielded candidates in key constituencies where the Congress believed it stood a fighting chance and a PCC meeting to screen candidates erupted in protests, waving of a DMK flag and angry posers over whether the party had been “put up for sale” to the ally.

CM candidate

The NDA alliance of the AINRC-BJP-AIADMK too has not without its own set of troubles, primarily the discord between the BJP and the AINRC over the chief ministerial candidate. While the BJP stuck to its non-committal policy on Chief Minister candidature, the AINRC executive went ahead and announced Mr. Rangasamy as Chief Minister in an NDA win. The AIADMK is also smarting under the ignominy of being relegated to third spot in the formation.

While the AINRC is contesting 16 seats, the BJP is fielding candidates in nine seats leaving the AIADMK with just five seats in spite of its long political history, having been in power twice — in 1974 and 1977 — though the ministries failed to last even half the term after allies withdrew support.

While Mr. Narayanasamy has taken the personal decision to not contest but only campaign for the party, former Chief Minister and AINRC supremo Mr. Rangasamy is contesting from Thattanchavady and Yanam while Congressman-turned-BJP leader and former Minister A. Namassivayam takes the field in Mannadipet.

The Congress is pitted against arch-rival AINRC in seats such as Ariyankuppam, Embalam, Indira Nagar, Kadirgamam, Karaikal North, Nedungadu, Nettapakkam.

It is Congress against the BJP in Lawspet, Oussudu, Thirunallar and Manavely.

The AIADMK and the DMK also face off at places such as Karaikal South, Orleanpet, Ouppalam and Mudaliarpet.

Also in the fray are smaller players such as the Makkal Neethi Maiam, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, Naam Tamilar Katchi, Bahujan Samaj Party, the CPI (ML), the SDPI and a host of Independents.

‘Anti-poor policies’

“In spite of recent setbacks, we hope to win as people across communities and classes who are suffering due to pro-corporate and anti-poor Central policies will silently express themselves on polling day,” said A.V. Subramanian, Puducherry PCC chief, contesting in Karaikal North.

There is anger over petrol diesel price hikes, joblessness and deprivation of reservation benefits and this will reflect in silent votes against the BJP much like what happened in the last Parliament elections in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, Mr. Subramanian said.

Though the Vanniyars are a dominant community over which Mr. Rangasamy, Mr. Namassivayam, who was the Congress’ second-in-command before joining the BJP, wield considerable influence, the Congress will be hoping for a consolidation of backward classes (about 35%) and minority communities (roughly 15%) against the NDA.

NDA confident

NDA campaign managers are confident about the front’s victory and a “rout of the Congress” and project a tally of about 25 seats.

“The Congress in Puducherry, like elsewhere in the country, is facing public anger over its dismal performance,” said Nirmal Kumar Surana, BJP in-charge for the Union Territory.

“The Congress has no credibility left. It keeps blaming the Centre to cover up its failures … for not delivering on any of its 52 manifesto promises. People understand that the Congress government fell under the weight of its multiple failures and the loss of confidence of its own MLAs who quit the party,” said Mr. Surana, who has been camping here for the last six months to oversee strategy.

Star campaigners

BJP expects to rope in a line-up of star campaigners in Puducherry from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and BJP national president J.P. Nadda,. The Congress is expecting stop-overs by Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra during electioneering.

In more than one poll survey, the NDA alliance has been projected to win a tally of seats in the 20-25 range. Though the psephologists have spoken, it is a long wait until May 2 to see if the projections tally with the vox populi.